Where the numbers come from
The calculator pulls from three public datasets, all current as of the FY2024 reporting cycle. Nothing is sourced from listings sites, scraped data, or vendor estimates.
- Income
- Statistics Canada T1FF custom tabulations, Toronto CMA, FY2024 — household income percentiles by 7 age cohorts (P10–P99).
- City prices
- CMHC Housing Market Information Portal, Toronto CMA, 2024 — average condo and detached/semi prices.
- Regional prices
- Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Q2 2025 Market Watch — region-level average sale prices for the GTA.
- Mortgage rules
- Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) Guideline B-20 — minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages.
The 22.5% rule
For each home price shown on the page, the calculator estimates the gross household income required to qualify for a typical mortgage. The estimate uses a simplified 22.5% benchmark:
This figure is derived from a typical 30% Gross Debt Service (GDS) ratio, where mortgage principal + interest + property tax + heat must not exceed 30% of gross income, and the mortgage payment dominates that ratio.
It's a benchmark, not a precise underwriting calculation. Actual lender qualification depends on your full debt load, credit profile, downpayment size, and the specific stress-test rate (covered in section 04).
Standard amortization formula
Monthly mortgage payments use the standard amortization formula. Inputs are the loan principal, the monthly interest rate, and the number of monthly payments over the amortization period:
The "Mortgage rate" slider at the top of the calculator drives this formula across every section — the summary cards, the housing chart, the savings runway, and the stress test all recompute when you move the slider.
OSFI Guideline B-20
Federally regulated lenders must qualify uninsured borrowers at the higher of two rates:
- The contract mortgage rate plus 2 percentage points, or
- 5.25% (the regulatory floor)
The stress test calculator on the main page uses this rule. It shows two payments side-by-side: the contract payment (what you'd actually pay each month at the contract rate) and the qualifying payment (what the lender uses to decide whether you qualify). The difference is what gets people approved or denied.
The income required to qualify is then derived by treating the qualifying payment as 30% of gross household income — consistent with the GDS benchmark in section 02.
GTA region map
The map under "Region breakdown" uses TRREB Q2 2025 average sale prices. The 14 regions cover the GTA in two tiers:
- Top-level regions: City of Toronto, York, Peel, Durham, Halton — averages across all sub-municipalities
- Sub-municipalities: Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill (York); Mississauga, Brampton (Peel); Oakville (Halton); Oshawa, Pickering (Durham)
The choropleth color scale uses a teal ramp for condo prices ($440K–$810K) and a coral ramp for detached/semi prices ($770K–$1.5M). Toggling between Condo and House recomputes both the choropleth and the qualifying-income comparison in the right-hand panel.
By age cohort
The income distribution chart and the full percentile reference table both use the same StatCan T1FF data, segmented into seven age cohorts:
- 18–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, 65–69, 70+
Each cohort has eight breakpoints: P10, P25, P50 (median), P75, P90, P95, P97, P99. The "Full curve" tab plots P10 through P99; the "Upper tail" tab focuses on P90 through P99 to make the high-income detail readable.
The "% of cohort qualifying" badge in the summary cards is computed by finding the lowest percentile breakpoint that meets the qualifying income, then converting to a "top X%" share. This is a discrete approximation — actual cohort qualification curves are continuous, but the breakpoints are the only public data.
What the calculator does not model
The methodology is intentionally simplified for transparency. These items are not separately modeled in every calculator on the page — keep them in mind when interpreting the numbers:
- Property taxes — varies by municipality (Toronto ~0.66%, Mississauga ~0.79%, Oshawa ~1.32%); folded into the GDS benchmark but not itemized
- Condo maintenance fees — typically $0.65–$0.85 per square foot per month in the GTA; can shift qualifying income by $20K–$40K on a typical condo
- CMHC insurance premiums — apply to insured (less than 20% down) mortgages; can add 2.8–4.0% to the loan principal
- Home insurance — typically $1,500–$3,000/year; folded into GDS but not itemized
- Heat — a real GDS input; modeled as a small fixed overhead inside the 30% benchmark
- Closing costs — land transfer tax (Ontario + Toronto), legal fees, title insurance — not in the savings runway
- Investment returns on savings — the runway projects linear savings; real returns from FHSA, RRSP, or TFSA holdings would shorten it
Verifying the numbers
Every figure on the page can be reproduced from public sources:
- Pull the StatCan T1FF custom tabulation for Toronto CMA, FY2024, by age cohort and income percentile.
- Apply the qualifying-income formula in section 02 to any home price in the CMHC or TRREB data.
- Run the standard amortization formula in section 03 to get the monthly payment at any rate / amortization combination.
- Apply the OSFI B-20 stress rule in section 04 to derive the qualifying payment and required income.
If you spot a discrepancy, please get in touch — corrections are welcome.